Macro favorable policies remain unchanged; aluminum prices may maintain fluctuating upward trend [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Comment]

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis

SMM, May 13:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 19,960 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,020 yuan/mt, a low of 19,930 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,005 yuan/mt, up 0.35%. Trading volume was 69,400 lots, and open interest was 160,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: On the macro side, domestic favorable policies remain unchanged, and positive progress has been made in the Sino-US tariff negotiations, which may drive the futures market to stand firm on quotes. On the fundamental side, the de-stocking of domestic aluminum ingot inventory provides support for aluminum prices. As of May 13, the inventories in Guangdong, Wuxi, and Gongyi were 238,000 mt, 177,000 mt, and 64,400 mt, respectively, totaling 479,400 mt, a decrease of 3,700 mt from the previous day. LME inventory decreased by 2,225 mt, down 0.55% from the previous day to 399,300 mt. Subsequent rush to meet deadlines during the Sino-US tariff negotiation window period may continue to boost consumption and support the upward trend of aluminum prices. It is expected that domestic aluminum prices will fluctuate upward in the short term.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,835 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,854 yuan/mt, a low of 2,819 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,840 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. Trading volume was 249,000 lots, and open interest was 284,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: Last week, there were both increases and decreases in the operating capacity of alumina enterprises, with a slight decrease of 80,000 mt/year in total operating capacity. It is expected that some alumina enterprises will conduct maintenance in the future, while new alumina capacity is expected to continue to be commissioned and released. In the short term, the operating capacity of alumina may fluctuate. Recently, downstream feedback indicates that spot cargo supplies are tight in some regions. With suppliers standing firm on quotes, spot prices may rebound slightly. However, on the cost side, bauxite prices have fallen significantly compared to the previous period, weakening the cost support. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined in the alumina market, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

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